Experts say that China’s foreign trade will continue to develop steadily and rapidly in the second half of the year.
"Since the beginning of this year, China’s foreign trade import and export has achieved rapid growth, quality and efficiency have been further improved, foreign trade development has maintained a steady and positive trend, and accelerated from ‘ Big entry and big exit ’ Towards ‘ Excellent entry and excellent exit ’ 。” Liang Ming, director of the Institute of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the 123rd Canton Fair, for example, attracted more than 200,000 merchants, up 5.3% year-on-year, the highest level in five years. The cumulative export turnover was 189.197 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year, the highest level in the Spring Fair in four years. This also means that since the 119th session, the buyers and export turnover of Canton Fair ushered in the fifth "double growth", which once again sent a positive signal.
Liang Ming believes that at present, China’s foreign trade presents four distinct characteristics:
First, the growth rate is relatively fast. From January to May this year, the total import and export volume of China’s goods trade reached US$ 1,814.45 billion, up 16.8% year-on-year. Among them, the export value was US$ 957.06 billion, up 13.3% year-on-year; Imports amounted to US$ 857.39 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21%. Judging from the growth rate of foreign trade in the first five months of the calendar year, the growth rate of China’s foreign trade this year is the highest in seven years.
The second is structural optimization. In terms of trade patterns, in the first five months, China’s general trade exports amounted to US$ 542.43 billion, accounting for 56.7% of China’s total exports in the same period, an increase of 2.7 percentage points over the same period last year; General trade imports amounted to $534.95 billion, accounting for 61.2% of China’s total imports in the same period, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the same period last year. In terms of trade goods, in the first five months, China’s exports of mechanical and electrical products were US$ 563.27 billion, accounting for 58.9% of China’s total exports in the same period, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the same period last year; The export volume of labor-intensive products was US$ 176.19 billion, accounting for 18.4% of China’s total exports in the same period, which was 1.9 percentage points lower than that in the same period last year.
The third is to improve efficiency. In the first five months, the import of some important equipment, key parts and high-quality consumer goods increased rapidly, among which the import of integrated circuits, electromechanical products and high-tech products increased by 35.8%, 23.3% and 25% respectively; The import of energy resources products increased rapidly, which ensured the domestic market demand and eased the resource constraints faced by economic development. The import volume of crude oil, iron ore, refined oil, copper and other bulk commodities maintained rapid growth, with growth rates of 8%, 0.7%, 12.4% and 16.7% respectively.
The fourth is to be more balanced. In the first five months, the growth rate of China’s imports was generally faster than that of its exports, and the trade surplus of goods was US$ 102.81 billion, down by 29.1% compared with the same period of last year. China’s market was further opened to the world.
"The rapid growth of China’s import and export is the result of many factors." Liang Ming believes that at present, the world economy is recovering moderately and the growth rate of international trade is obvious. The development trend of China’s economy, which is progressing steadily and improving steadily, has been continuously consolidated, which has driven the sustained and rapid growth of imports, and the relevant foreign trade support policies have gradually exerted their efforts to achieve results. From the market perspective, the "Belt and Road Initiative" has been steadily promoted, and the development of emerging markets has given strength, and the ability of enterprises to bravely enter the international market has also been continuously enhanced.
"In the second half of the year, foreign trade will continue its steady and rapid development momentum. It is expected that the quality, structure and efficiency of China’s foreign trade will be further improved this year. " Liang Ming said that China’s foreign trade is stable and supportive, and it faces new development opportunities. According to the latest report of Global Trade Data and Outlook released by the World Trade Organization, the growth forecast of global trade volume in 2018 will be greatly raised from the previous 3.2% to 4.4%, which is significantly higher than the average annual growth rate of 3% after the international financial crisis.
Liang Ming believes that it is necessary to continue to promote the liberalization and facilitation of trade and investment, maintain the multilateral trading system, and intensify efforts to cultivate new trade formats and modes. While stabilizing exports, we will actively expand imports, make full preparations for the first China International Import Expo, increase the import of products with distinctive advantages where people’s needs are concentrated, and promote the balanced development of foreign trade import and export. I believe that the openness of China’s foreign trade field will continue to increase in the future, and the prospect of coordinated and sustainable development of trade can be expected.