[Afternoon Comment] Soda fell more than 3%, and oil staged a V-shaped trend. Palm rose by 3% from the low point.
Commodities are mixed, and the impact of Yuanxing production, soda ash fell more than 3%; Crude oil, fuel oil and asphalt fell more than 1%. Oil shows a V-shaped trend, and palm rises by 3% from the low point.
[Industry News]
National Bureau of Statistics: From January to May, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 18.8%.
From January to May, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 2,668.89 billion yuan, down 18.8% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 1.8 percentage points narrower than that in January-April. Among industrial enterprises above designated size, state-owned holding enterprises realized a total profit of 962.51 billion yuan, down 17.7% year-on-year; Joint-stock enterprises realized a total profit of 1,957.81 billion yuan, down by 20.4%; Foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises realized a total profit of 626.75 billion yuan, down by 13.6%; The total profit of private enterprises was 683.78 billion yuan, down by 21.3%.
Jiao Zengjun, Deputy Director of the Futures Department of CSRC: The total assets of the futures industry increased by 223.90% in five years.
At the 2023 Green Financial Services Entity Futures Helping Rural Revitalization Conference, Jiao Zengjun, deputy director of the Futures Department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, delivered a speech saying that the futures industry’s own strength has been continuously enhanced and its ability to serve the real economy has continued to improve. By the end of 2022, the total assets of the industry were 1,699.676 billion yuan, an increase of 223.90% over the end of 2017; Customer equity was 1,430.63 billion yuan, an increase of 256.22%. Accumulated operating income was 40.164 billion yuan and net profit was 11.004 billion yuan, increasing by 45.30% and 36.20% respectively compared with 2017. The total assets of 100 risk management subsidiaries were 153.712 billion yuan, an increase of 476.28% over 2017; Accumulated operating income was 241.381 billion yuan and net profit was 1.154 billion yuan, up by 186.02% and 28.22% respectively compared with 2017.
Last issue: Accelerate the listing of low-carbon products such as liquefied natural gas and aluminum alloy futures.
On June 28th, Zhang Ming, deputy general manager of the last issue, said at the "2023 Green Financial Services Entity Futures Helping Rural Revitalization Conference" that in terms of variety innovation, the last issue successfully launched low-sulfur fuel oil futures to help the ship oil supply market change from high-sulfur to low-sulfur, and is currently accelerating the listing of low-carbon products such as liquefied natural gas and aluminum alloy futures. In the next step, the last issue will fully implement the concepts of green, conservation and environmental protection, strengthen green cooperation, research and launch more products with green concepts, and support the green transformation of futures companies.
China Cotton Association: The raw material inventory of textile enterprises increased slightly in May.
According to the investigation of China cotton early warning system on more than 90 designated textile enterprises in China, the short-term orders of textile enterprises have remained sufficient since May, the operating rate has remained basically stable, the cotton price trend has been strong during the month, enterprises have replenished their stocks on bargain hunting, and the overall raw material inventory has increased. As of May 31, the inventory of cotton industry in the warehouse of textile enterprises was 854,400 tons, an increase of 148,800 tons compared with the end of last month and an increase of 264,300 tons year-on-year. Among them: 28% enterprises reduced cotton inventory, 37% increased inventory, and 35% remained basically unchanged.
Domestic refined oil prices may face a slight increase today.
At 24: 00 on June 28, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened. Affected by the overall increase in crude oil prices during the pricing cycle, the agency expects that the price of refined oil products will increase slightly this round. According to Jin Lianchuang’s calculation, as of the tenth working day of June 28th, the average price of reference crude oil varieties is 73.21 USD/barrel, with a change rate of 1.10%, and the domestic retail price will be raised in cash, including gasoline by 70 yuan/ton and diesel by 70 yuan/ton, with the discount price of 92# by 0.05 yuan, 95# by 0.06 yuan and 0# by 0.06 yuan.
[Institutional point of view]
Soda has collapsed again! Will the market still fall in the afternoon?
Today, the price of soda ash futures fell sharply, with a drop of over 3%, and the main contract price of 09 approached the 1600 yuan/ton mark.
According to the analysis, the main reason is () putting into production to suppress market sentiment. At present, the first phase of Yuanxing Energy Natural Alkali Project is ignited in the market, and the products put into production may come out in the near future. The price drop of soda ash is accompanied by the dumping of goods in the market, and the inventory of soda ash is accumulated in advance. Therefore, the market’s pessimistic expectation of oversupply after the new production capacity is put into production in the later stage is even stronger. After the current price drop, the current cost line of ammonia-alkali process will be broken.
Everbright Futures said that in the past two days, the market has circulated information on the planned price increase of alkali plants, and the news needs to be verified. At the end of the month and the beginning of next month, it is necessary to pay close attention to the direction and extent of spot price adjustment. Fundamentally speaking, the maintenance of the supply side has been gradually implemented. The load of soda plants in Jiangsu and Qinghai has decreased, and the operating rate of soda ash has dropped slightly to 90.44% in a day. However, the impact on the supply side is limited at present, and the maintenance is more intensive in July and August. At that time, the output of soda ash may drop significantly. In addition, in the past two days, the commissioning of Yuanxing will be carried out, which will offset the lack of supply caused by maintenance after the finished products are stably produced. The demand side has not changed much, and some downstream purchases are moderate, but the downstream mentality is cautious as a whole, and it may be difficult to effectively support the market.
On the whole, the short-term soda ash market lacks effective drive, and it will continue to be treated with a wide range of shocks in the day. In the later period, we should pay attention to the seasonal maintenance efforts and the changes of product speed, macro and overall mood of commodity market.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Guangzhou futures are mainly bearish, and there is a big difference between soda ash in recent months and far months. In recent months, due to the maintenance season from July to September, the supply is shrinking, and the downstream demand is still there, and the low inventory state has certain support for the price of soda ash in recent months. However, after the expected completion of production at the end of the month, the overall overcapacity of soda ash will be clear after September. In the short term, the pattern of soda ash near strength and far weakness is obvious. In recent months, under the tight balance between supply and demand, the reasons for low inventory and high price are relatively firm. After the natural soda in contract 09 is put into production, the price is easy to fall and difficult to rise. In the medium and long term, it is still recommended to sell short on rallies.
Oils and fats: In the early stage, Lido-driven weakening will still be more in the short term.
In the medium term, palm oil production is expected to increase from June to October, and palm oil production is expected to accumulate in June to October when exports are relatively weak. There is a great pressure on the arrival of soybeans in Hong Kong from June to August in China, and the cumulative inventory of soybean oil is expected to be strong. Pay attention to whether geopolitical conflicts have an impact on Russian-Ukrainian vegetable oil exports, thus increasing the alternative consumption of soybean oil and palm oil. In the long run, due to the impact of El Niñ o, palm oil production is expected to decrease in 2024. After the South American beans are listed in the new season, the soybean supply will further turn loose. Operation: In the early stage, it will continue to be held after taking profit, and the soybean oil basis will be bearish.