The property market handed over the semi-annual report, and it depends on a word in the second half of the year？
Zhongxin. com, July 16 th: The property market handed over the semi-annual report, and it depends on a "word" in the second half of the year?
Zhongxin Financial Reporter Zuo Yukun
On July 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the changes in the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in June, as well as the national real estate development investment and sales from January to June, all of which are heavy data reflecting the operation of the real estate industry in the first half of the year and judging the development situation in the second half.
Generally speaking, the word "stability" is still the trend and goal of the development of the real estate industry in the ups and downs.
House prices rose in June, and cities increased.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities generally stabilized in June, and the sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing increased in 31 and 21 cities respectively, an increase of 6 from the previous month.
"The number of cities with rising housing prices has further increased, the market is in a stage of sustained and steady recovery, and the recovery of traditional hot cities has been further strengthened." Zhang Bo, dean of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute Branch, said.
From the perspective of specific cities, the rising intensity of first-tier cities has continued to increase. First, the growth rate of second-hand houses has expanded. Among them, the prices of new houses in Beijing and Shanghai rose by 0.8% and 0.5% respectively, showing the most obvious performance; Among the second-hand houses, only Shenzhen experienced a month-on-month decline with a range of 1%.
"Strong demand support in first-tier cities and the existence of price limit factors for new houses have led to a long-term high market attention. The Shenzhen market as a whole has been in a rebound stage, but due to the strong previous policies, especially the reference price of second-hand houses and other policies, the market recovery will be slow, and the short-term fluctuation of house prices is also normal. " Zhang Bo said.
Sales price index of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in June 2022. Screenshot from National Bureau of Statistics official website
Second-tier cities are in a state of continuous differentiation. In terms of new houses,The month-on-month increase in house prices in Chengdu and Hangzhou was greater than or equal to 1%, and the increase in second-hand house prices in Chengdu reached 2.0%., the performance is bright; The house prices in Harbin and Changchun still dropped significantly from the previous month.
"The hot-spot second-tier cities in the west and east have strong self-repair ability, and the effectiveness of policies is easier to be reflected in the market, especially with the supply of high-quality new houses, and the attention of the market is easy to increase." Zhang Bo thinks.
The overall recovery of third-tier cities is still slow. Cities with strong industrial support and great demand potential, such as Wuxi and Xuzhou, are gradually stepping into the upward channel, while more cities are still at the bottom stage, and the recovery process is expected to remain long.
Among them,The performance of Mudanjiang has attracted attention. The second-hand housing fell by 10.4% year-on-year, and it is also the only city with a double-digit decline.In May, the year-on-year decline of second-hand house prices was also 10.5%, and there was news in the market that "Mudanjiang house prices fell back to 51,000 suites 15 years ago".
"The repair of the current market is more driven by first-tier and strong second-tier cities. It is expected that the later repair will be transmitted to the surrounding second-tier and strong third-tier cities, and the market repair will gradually expand." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of RealData, thinks.
Sales price index of second-hand houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities in June 2022. Screenshot from National Bureau of Statistics official website
The downward trend of sales has been alleviated.
From the perspective of the overall housing prices of cities in each line, there are still some situations that need attention. Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, mentioned that the year-on-year increase of new house prices in second-tier cities was the first decline in 79 months, that is, the first year-on-year decline since December 2015.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales price of new commercial housing in second-tier cities turned from a month-on-month decline to an increase of 0.1%, and from a month-on-year increase to a decrease of 0.2%. The sales price of second-hand houses decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than that of last month.
"This shows that the pressure in second-tier cities is relatively high. The recent phenomenon of suspension of work and loan breaks is also generally concentrated in second-tier cities, so it is necessary to guard against the risk of over-cooling housing prices in some second-tier cities. " Yan Yuejin said.
In addition, the sales price of new commercial housing in first-tier cities increased by 0.5% month-on-month, with an increase of 0.1 percentage point over the previous month; The sales price of second-hand houses changed from the same last month to an increase of 0.1%. The sales price of new commercial housing in third-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, the same as last month; The sales price of second-hand houses decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than that of last month.
"Although the property market is still in the process of finding the bottom, with the easing policy of blowout, the market decline has narrowed significantly." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, pointed out that in June, more than 100 cities have issued nearly 120 policies to stabilize the property market. As of June, the real estate regulation has exceeded 460 times, and only 286 times in the first half of 2021.
The continuous overweight of policies has also caused particular concern in the property market in the first half of the year.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 15th, in the first half of the year, the national investment in real estate development was 6,831.4 billion yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year; Among them, residential investment was 5,180.4 billion yuan, down 4.5%. The national commercial housing sales area was 689.23 million square meters, down by 22.2%; The sales of commercial housing reached 6,607.2 billion yuan, down by 28.9%.
"By splitting the monthly data, we can see that the monthly sales area in June was still the lowest point in the last four years, but the turnover decreased significantly year-on-year, with the sales area decreased by 18.3% and the sales volume decreased by 20.8%." Zhang Dawei said.
"The transaction scale of the real estate market bottomed out, and the cumulative downward trend of the sales area and amount of commercial housing was alleviated." The Central Finger Research Institute further pointed out that the year-on-year decline in the sales scale of commercial housing in June was significantly narrowed, which was closely related to the centralized release of the backlog of demand during the epidemic and the increase in corporate push in June to drive demand into the market.
Screenshot from official website, National Bureau of Statistics.
It should be noted that extreme conditions affect the rare stabilization of the market.
"In the short term, the national real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, but stable recovery still faces some pressure." The Central Finger Research Institute pointed out that some projects in some cities have recently stopped lending, which has adversely affected market expectations or dragged down the pace of market recovery to some extent.
Many people in the industry have pointed out the impact of similar problems on the current real estate market. Zhang Dawei also pointed out that the current problems faced by the property market are not just real estate problems, and targeted support policies should be introduced to avoid extreme situations such as loan suspension from affecting the rare stabilization of the market.
Recently, the regulatory authorities and some local governments have taken prompt action, and many banks have actively responded to the expectation of stabilizing the market. According to the Institute, from the short-term trend of the market, the transaction scale of commercial housing in July may be lower than that in June, but the high cardinal utility weakened in the same period last year and there is still room for real estate regulation and control policies, and the year-on-year decline in market scale is expected to continue to narrow.
Zhang Bo pointed out that the demand side can pay more attention to improving the crowd, especially in the down payment and loan interest rate, which will be more conducive to accelerating the pace of improving the crowd’s admission. On the supply side, there needs to be more flexible policies for housing enterprises. (End)