This year’s national GDP growth rate may be higher than 5.5%. Expert： The trend of economic recovery is clear

　　According to the "Securities Daily" reporter, as of January 15th, 28 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) such as Guangdong and Hainan have successively held local two conferences, and the average GDP growth target of 28 provinces in 2023 is 6.0%.

　　According to the GDP growth target set by each region in 2023, the Securities Daily reporter interviewed seven chief economists. They generally believe that China’s economy will improve obviously, comprehensively and positively in 2023, and the national GDP growth rate will be above 5%. With the support of a series of policies, China’s economy will be more driven by domestic demand, and promoting consumption and stabilizing investment will become the main force points.

　　The GDP growth targets of Hainan, Chongqing and other places in 2023 are higher than those in 2022, among which the GDP target set by Hainan is 9.5%, ranking first; Tibet ranked second with 8%, and Jiangxi and Xinjiang tied for third with 7%.

　　"Some provinces have raised their GDP growth targets, which shows that the current economic operation has maintained a recovery and stabilization trend. All departments and regions are struggling to sprint during the window period, the opportunity period and the critical period, and strive for stability and progress." Pang Yao, chief economist and head of research department of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily.

　　Among the above 28 provinces, the GDP growth targets of 18 places such as Tianjin and Hebei have been lowered.

　　In this regard, zhaowei, chief economist of Guojin Securities, said that although most provinces lowered their GDP targets in 2023, it does not mean that they are pessimistic about economic development this year.

　　Looking forward to the national GDP growth rate in 2023, zhaowei believes that past experience shows that the GDP growth targets of Shanghai and Beijing are close to the national target, and the GDP growth target of Shanghai in 2023 is set at above 5.5%, which means that the national GDP growth target in 2023 is also at the level of 5.5%.

　　Chen Li, chief economist and director of the research institute of Chuancai Securities, said that the national GDP growth rate may be around 6% in 2023, and the growth rate will obviously increase due to the influence of low cardinal utility in the second quarter.

　　Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, said that the risk of overseas economic recession will gradually increase in 2023, and inflation may accelerate, and the Fed may change from raising interest rates to cutting interest rates. It is estimated that the real GDP growth rate of China will reach 5% or even higher in 2023.

　　Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, also said that all localities put "steady growth" in a more prominent position and concentrate on economic construction, which will strongly support the national economic stabilization and recovery. It is estimated that China’s economy will improve as a whole in 2023, and it is expected to achieve a GDP growth rate of more than 5%.

　　"It is estimated that China’s GDP growth rate will return to 5% in 2023." Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said that with the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, China’s consumption and production activities will return to normal, economic growth will pick up quarter by quarter, and confidence will continue to increase.

　　Talking about the starting point of stabilizing the economy, promoting development and strengthening confidence in the next stage, Pang Wei believes that the key to economic recovery in 2023 still lies in fully expanding effective social demand, especially actively expanding domestic demand. It is expected that the next stage of economic work will be supported by the basic role of consumption and the key role of investment to stabilize the confidence of market participants and the expectations of residents.

　　Dong Zhongyun, chief economist of AVIC Securities, said that the global economy will continue to weaken in 2023, which will make China’s exports face a more severe situation, which means that this year’s economic stability must rely more on domestic demand, and macro-control should fully exert its strength in supporting the repair of domestic demand and make full use of various policies.

　　"Infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment will continue to shoulder the heavy responsibility of stabilizing investment and promoting growth." Chen Li believes that digitalization and intelligence, carbon neutrality and green development are the key directions for the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry. The transformation and upgrading of high-end manufacturing industry will bring a lot of equipment renewal and transformation needs. It is still possible to increase support for high-end manufacturing and scientific and technological innovation in the future, and manufacturing investment will undertake the task of supporting the economy to a certain extent. Driven by the current steady growth policy, new and old infrastructure sectors have joined forces to help China’s economy develop steadily and healthily.